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Libya & The Russian Revolution

For the past couple of days I have been closely following the events in Libya. My first instinct was to rejoice with the rebels.  After all, Qaddafi was a state sponsor of terrorism and was responsible for the Lockerbie bombings. He was barbaric, ruthless, and a murderer. But now that Qaddafi's regime has been overthrown I am worried about what will happen in the after.

I recently watched  a documentary on the Russian Revolution.  The similarities of the two events are startling such as:
  • The first Russian Revolution took place on February 1917. The Libyan rebels also began their first major assaults in February.   
  • After Czar Nicolas II abdicated his throne in 1917 there was initial euphoria.  We have seen the euphoria on the part of the Libyans in the past few days.
  • During the first Russian Revolution there was a Provisional government set up to maintain law and order until the democratic elections would be held.  This temporary body even appointed a leader, Alexander Kerensky.  In Libya it is also believed that a provisional government will be setup to help in the transition.
But this is what happened in Russia:
  • The Russian provisional government under Alexander Kerensky was doomed from the start.  Having no real popular mandate, or true power it laid the framework for Vladimir Lenin to take over in the second revolution.  
  • Soon after the Bolsheviks seized power in October a brutal civil war broke out in 1918 between Lenin's Red Army and the opposing "White Army". 
  • In 1921, after 3 years of brutal fighting and over 3 million casualties the Red Army emerged victorious ushering 70 years of Communist, totalitarian rule. 

Could Libya be heading down a similar path?
  • A provisional government in Libya? Who is going to run it?  Could it lay the framework for a fanatical Islamic "Lenin" to take over in a second revolution?
  • Already it is rumored that the rebel forces will take punitive action against Qaddafi loyalists.  This could usher a civil war.
  • Who will be victorious if there is a civil war?  Al Qaeda already announced that they would be sending several operatives to Libya in the next couple of days as there is an already existing relationship there.
The simple truth here is that revolutions might begin with noble aspirations. However, if there is a power vacuum - usually the most organized and radical elements take over.  It is my prayer that this does not happen.


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