The, Unusual Surest Way to Victory in November

Like most of the country I am enthralled by the presidential races in both parties.  Like most Republicans I haven't made up my mind on who I will support.  I am faced with three choices: to vote for Donald Trump who is the brash front runner, presumptive nominee. Ted Cruz the grassroots conservative, and John Kasich the very successful centrist governor from Ohio.  For months I have been vacillating on whom to support.

Originally I was a Marco Rubio supporter.  I felt that his optimistic message of conservatism were the best mix for a November victory.  I was also very impressed by most of his debate performances and I felt that since he was the best orator he would win the nomination. I based my support on the 2008 Democratic primaries which saw Barack Obama win by the sheer force of his brilliant eloquence.  But I was wrong, Rubio in spite of his hopeful message fell short to the political phenomena of Trump mania.  Once Rubio was out I began to warm up to Trump as the presumptive nominee.  But after a string of terrible comments (  women should be punished for abortion.), unrealistic indefensible positions,(" I will build a wall.") and hackneyed, cheap political slogans. I felt that he would be a disaster in November against Hillary Clinton. (I still feel that way.) After his seemingly daily melt downs I was left once again without a clear choice.  I could vote for Ted Cruz, but I felt that in spite of his impressive conservative credentials he would have little chance against the Democratic nominee.  I was looking at John Kasich, but I felt in spite of his impressive resume that he had little chance to win the Republican nomination outright.

However, something began to change within me. One day I began looking at the polling data and to my surprise John Kasich did the best against both Democratic candidates.  I began thinking the impossible could it be possible that Kasich could win the nomination in a contested convention? History was on his side. Out of the 8 contested conventions the front runner was only nominated 3 times.  That means that if Donald Trump doesn't get the 1,237 delegates there will be a contested convention. If that happens then I think that Kasich might have a shot at the nomination since the delegates could vote for any candidate after the first ballot.  History has shown that pledged delegates have a tendency to gravitate towards a candidate who offers the best possibility of victory in November. This is what exactly happened in the 1880 election where James Garfield was nominated even though he was in fourth place. In this scenario the delegates might be more inclined to vote for someone like a Kasich who is seen as a unifying candidate.

I know what you are thinking, how is this fair the person who has the most delegates? Why would anyone support the fourth place candidate? Conventional wisdom would support this claim, but if a candidate can not get the 1,237 delegates then that candidate doesn't have the majority needed for the nomination.  I believe that Kasich is the best candidate available that can unite the party and win the election in November.  My scenario might seem far fetched, but I believe that anything is possible, especially in this crazy election cycle.   I believe that this scenario will occur if Trump doesn't win the delegates outright.  If Trump does win the delegates then all of this speculation is null.  But if Trump doesn't win the delegates as I predict he won't then anything is possible.  Cruz might be second place, but I don't believe he has the capability nor the temperament necessary to win in November.  So for now I am pinning my hopes on John Kasich winning the nomination at a contested convention in July and the presidency in November.

 

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